IG Group expects quarterly revenue to fall 14% as trading conditions weaken

What the company reported

IG expects total revenue of approximately £240 million for the three months ended 30 September 2026. That would be around 14% below the £280.1 million recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

Expected net trading revenue is approximately £210 million, compared with £249.5 million a year earlier.

The figures are preliminary. IG plans to provide a fuller third-quarter update on 22 October.

Why revenue weakened

IG attributed the decline principally to lower revenue retention within its over-the-counter derivatives business.

Revenue retention was approximately 70% during the quarter. The company said this compared with an average of approximately 80% since it introduced market-making optimisation measures during the second half of 2025.

Revenue retention measures how much client trading activity ultimately becomes revenue for the company. It can vary materially with market conditions and customer outcomes. IG described the quarter's market conditions as less supportive.

Revenue outlook reduced

The company now expects total revenue growth for 2026 to be in the mid-single-digit percentage range compared with 2025.

This represents a weaker near-term expectation than investors may previously have assumed from IG's medium-term ambitions.

The announcement did not provide a full profit forecast. Revenue movements do not translate directly into equivalent changes in profit because costs, business mix, interest income and other factors also matter.

Customer activity remained stronger

The update was not uniformly negative.

Organic first trades increased by more than 25% compared with the same quarter last year, while organic active customers rose by approximately 17%.

These figures suggest IG continued attracting and retaining customers even though the trading environment produced lower revenue. The key investor question is whether that customer growth can translate into more durable revenue when market conditions change.

Underdog continued growing

IG said its US sports-gaming business, Underdog, traded strongly.

Underdog's third-quarter net revenue more than doubled year on year to approximately $105 million. The company noted that the final quarter is seasonally important and represented more than one-third of Underdog's 2025 revenue.

That growth provides diversification, but it does not remove the volatility within the core trading business.

What this means for investors

The update presents two contrasting signals.

Customer numbers and first trades continued to grow, while the amount of revenue generated from OTC activity weakened sharply. That makes revenue quality and retention more important than headline customer acquisition alone.

Investors should also separate organic performance from businesses added through acquisition. IG now owns operations including Freetrade, Independent Reserve and Underdog, which makes comparisons with earlier periods more complex.

The Apolifina view

This is a genuine earnings signal, but not yet a complete results announcement.

The reduction in expected revenue growth matters because it shows that strong customer acquisition does not guarantee equally strong short-term financial performance. Market conditions and revenue retention remain important variables.

The 22 October update should provide the evidence needed to assess costs, profitability, business mix and whether the weaker quarter changes the longer-term investment case.

What remains uncertain

IG has not yet published complete third-quarter accounts or a new profit figure.

The sustainability of customer growth, the future level of OTC revenue retention and the seasonal contribution from Underdog remain uncertain. Foreign-exchange movements and the integration of acquired businesses may also affect reported comparisons.

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